Significant expansion of nuclear energy will be required if Congress and the Obama administration are to be successful in reducing greenhouse gases, according to several scientific studies.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) are the most recent studies that identify increased use of nuclear energy as part of a broad portfolio of low-carbon electricity supply technologies. Other necessary parts of the portfolio should include energy efficiency technologies, expanded use of renewable energy sources and cleaner coal plants that capture and store carbon dioxide, according to both studies.

Recent studies by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Business Roundtable, the International Energy Agency and Cambridge Energy Research Associates also recognize that nuclear energy will play a vital role in a low-carbon approach to electricity production.

The House of Representatives approved legislation in June intended to reduce carbon dioxide emissions 42 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050. Similar legislation is pending in the Senate.

EPRI’s new report updates a 2007 analysis of the potential carbon reductions from different sectors of the electricity industry and the optimum mix, or portfolio, of electricity sources. It suggests that the electricity sector could reduce annual CO2 emissions by 41 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 if the United States “aggressively” deploys a “full technology portfolio.” This includes the addition of 45 new nuclear plants in the next 20 years, advanced coal plants, significant energy-efficiency measures, a fourfold increase in renewable energy, and the use of 100 million plug-in hybrid electric cars.

A more “limited” scenario, which assumes no new coal plants or electric cars and only a continuation of the existing 104 commercial reactors, would make up the difference with natural gas-based plants.

Regardless of the portfolio implemented, EPRI warns that energy costs will rise. However, the cost of not choosing the full portfolio scenario will be far higher, as much as $1 trillion more by 2050.

Meanwhile, the findings of a new National Academy of Sciences study parallel EPRI’s recommendation of achieving greenhouse gas reductions using a full-portfolio approach.

This would involve deploying energy efficiency and renewable technologies, as well as demonstrating the viability of carbon capture and storage for coal plants and advanced nuclear energy technologies. NAS recommends the construction of at least five new nuclear plants in the next decade, concluding that renewables and cleaner coal alone would be “unlikely to provide all the U.S. electricity demand for 2035, even with gains in efficiency.”

In order to address greenhouse gas emissions in a meaningful way, the report says, “… our nation must fundamentally transform the ways in which it produces, distributes and consumes useful energy.”

—Nuclear Energy Insight, September 2009